Amanda Nunes 18 UFC fights
Kayla Harrison 3 UFC fights
Amanda Nunes vs Kayla Harrison prediction
UFC 334 · Sunday, November 15, 2026. Our model gives Amanda Nunes a 55% chance to win.
Breakdown
Nunes brings the bigger striking output and real power. She lands 4.46 significant strikes a minute to Harrison's 3.97 and has the higher knockdown rate (0.56 per 15 minutes versus 0.08). Harrison absorbs less (1.81 a minute against 2.50) and has been more accurate, but her profile comes from only three UFC fights, so that sample is small and her numbers are heavily blended toward league averages. Harrison's clearest edge is control: she holds it for 50% of fight time, while Nunes holds it for 34%. Nunes has a 3-inch reach advantage, and both are 68 inches tall.
Our model leans Nunes at 55% mainly because of experience and track record: 18 UFC fights, an Elo of 1697 against 1587, and a far larger body of evidence behind her numbers. Her knockdown rate adds to that. The market sees it very differently, making Harrison 63%, a 18-point gap from our view. The likeliest reason is that the model only knows UFC fights, so it can't see Harrison's wider record or grappling pedigree. It may also underweight Nunes' 1254-day layoff and her age of 38.5, though it does include both.
Key question: can Nunes keep this standing and land first, or does Harrison turn it into a grappling fight?
Written by AI from the numbers below; it has no access to news or injuries.
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Tale of the tape (UFC fights only)
| Amanda Nunes | Kayla Harrison | |
|---|---|---|
| UFC record | 16-2 | 3-0 |
| Rating (Elo) | 1697 | 1587 |
| Sig. strikes landed / min | 4.46 | 3.97 |
| Sig. strikes absorbed / min | 2.50 | 1.81 |
| Striking accuracy | 52% | 58% |
| Striking defence | 59% | 62% |
| Takedowns / 15 min | 2.69 | 2.35 |
| Takedown defence | 77% | 71% |
| Submission attempts / 15 min | 0.72 | 0.80 |
| Knockdowns / 15 min | 0.56 | 0.08 |
| Finish rate | 53% | 50% |
| Streak | W2 | W3 |
| Days since last fight | 1254 | 526 |
| Age | 38 | 36 |
| Height | 5'8" | 5'8" |
| Reach | 69" | 66" |
Rates for fighters with few UFC fights are blended toward league averages. The pick is logged with a timestamp before the event and graded on the track record, win or lose.