Track record
Everything we publish is here, including the numbers that don't flatter us.
Live picks
The live record starts with the next card. Picks below are locked with the time they were made.
| Event | Fight | Our pick | Chance | Market | Result | Logged (UTC) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UFC 335 2026-12-13 | Alex Pereira vs Sergei Pavlovich | Sergei Pavlovich | 58.7% | 63.7% | pending | 2026-11-06 19:29 |
| UFC 335 2026-12-13 | Bo Nickal vs Joe Pyfer | Bo Nickal | 56.6% | — | pending | 2026-11-06 19:29 |
| UFC 334 2026-11-15 | Bilal Hasan vs Luis Gurule | Bilal Hasan | 76.0% | 85.9% | pending | 2026-11-06 19:29 |
| UFC 334 2026-11-15 | Kevin Holland vs Uros Medic | Uros Medic | 57.5% | 61.1% | pending | 2026-11-06 19:29 |
| UFC 334 2026-11-15 | Amanda Nunes vs Kayla Harrison | Amanda Nunes | 54.7% | 37.5% | pending | 2026-11-06 19:29 |
| UFC 334 2026-11-15 | Ciryl Gane vs Josh Hokit | Ciryl Gane | 59.9% | 67.2% | pending | 2026-11-06 19:29 |
| UFC 334 2026-11-14 | Jared Gordon vs Melquizael Costa | Melquizael Costa | 71.9% | 78.4% | pending | 2026-11-06 19:29 |
| UFC 334 2026-11-14 | Bia Mesquita vs Macy Chiasson | Bia Mesquita | 65.0% | 65.8% | pending | 2026-11-06 19:29 |
| UFC 334 2026-11-14 | Cesar Almeida vs Donte Johnson | Donte Johnson | 76.9% | 58.4% | pending | 2026-11-06 19:29 |
| UFC 334 2026-11-14 | Jim Miller vs Terrance McKinney | Terrance McKinney | 60.1% | 70.2% | pending | 2026-11-06 19:29 |
| UFC 334 2026-11-14 | Chris Duncan vs Drew Dober | Chris Duncan | 66.9% | 56.3% | pending | 2026-11-06 19:29 |
| UFC 334 2026-11-14 | Charles Radtke vs Stephen Thompson | Charles Radtke | 62.8% | 45.2% | pending | 2026-11-06 19:29 |
| UFC Vegas 124 2026-11-08 | Marcos Degli vs Mitch Raposo | Mitch Raposo | 61.1% | 31.8% | pending | 2026-11-06 19:29 |
| UFC Vegas 124 2026-11-08 | Billy Elekana vs Lucas Fernando | Lucas Fernando | 63.3% | 74.0% | pending | 2026-11-06 19:29 |
| UFC Vegas 124 2026-11-08 | Davey Grant vs Elijah Smith | Elijah Smith | 77.9% | 73.6% | pending | 2026-11-06 19:29 |
| UFC Vegas 124 2026-11-08 | Tatiana Suarez vs Virna Jandiroba | Tatiana Suarez | 67.6% | 64.6% | pending | 2026-11-06 19:29 |
| UFC Vegas 124 2026-11-08 | Johnny Walker vs Waldo Cortes Acosta | Waldo Cortes Acosta | 59.4% | 68.0% | pending | 2026-11-06 19:29 |
| UFC Vegas 124 2026-11-07 | Austin Bashi vs Carlos Calderon | Austin Bashi | 64.3% | 84.9% | pending | 2026-11-06 19:29 |
| UFC Vegas 124 2026-11-07 | Jonny Parsons vs Jose Souza | Jonny Parsons | 55.8% | 30.9% | pending | 2026-11-06 19:29 |
| UFC Vegas 124 2026-11-07 | Seokhyeon Ko vs Wellington Turman | Seokhyeon Ko | 76.0% | 83.9% | pending | 2026-11-06 19:29 |
| UFC Vegas 124 2026-11-07 | Andre Petroski vs Mantas Kondratavicius | Mantas Kondratavicius | 68.4% | 74.0% | pending | 2026-11-06 19:29 |
| UFC Vegas 124 2026-11-07 | Jose Delano vs Murtazali Magomedov | Murtazali Magomedov | 55.4% | 47.8% | pending | 2026-11-06 19:29 |
| UFC Vegas 124 2026-11-07 | Gabriella Fernandes vs Karine Silva | Karine Silva | 63.0% | 66.6% | pending | 2026-11-06 19:29 |
| UFC Vegas 124 2026-11-07 | Keiichiro Nakamura vs Ollie Schmid | Keiichiro Nakamura | 53.4% | 75.9% | pending | 2026-11-06 19:29 |
| UFC Vegas 124 2026-11-07 | Nina Milosevic vs Priscila Cachoeira | Nina Milosevic | 82.3% | 80.7% | pending | 2026-11-06 19:29 |
Backtest: 2,511 UFC fights, 2022–2026
For each year, the model was trained only on earlier fights and then predicted that year blind. It picked the winner 63.0% of the time.
Against the betting market. On the 2,331 fights where we have closing odds, the market's favourite won 69.2% of the time and ours 63.6%. The closing line is the toughest benchmark in sports, and right now it beats us. We show win chances and analysis, not "locks" or guaranteed value bets.
Calibration: do our percentages mean what they say?
When we gave the favourite a given chance, how often did the favourite actually win?
| We said | Fights | Average said | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50%-55% | 635 | 52.5% | 52.8% |
| 55%-60% | 626 | 57.4% | 59.6% |
| 60%-65% | 503 | 62.4% | 67.0% |
| 65%-70% | 388 | 67.2% | 67.8% |
| 70%-75% | 225 | 72.4% | 73.3% |
| 75%-80% | 104 | 77.5% | 77.9% |
| 80%-100% | 30 | 81.7% | 90.0% |
By year
| Year | Fights | Winner picked |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 506 | 63.0% |
| 2023 | 504 | 61.7% |
| 2024 | 513 | 62.4% |
| 2025 | 513 | 64.3% |
| 2026 | 475 | 63.8% |