Bia Mesquita 3 UFC fights
Macy Chiasson 14 UFC fights
Bia Mesquita vs Macy Chiasson prediction
UFC 334 · Saturday, November 14, 2026. Our model gives Bia Mesquita a 65% chance to win.
Breakdown
Bia Mesquita brings a grappling-leaning game with real output on the feet. She lands 3.86 significant strikes a minute while absorbing 2.37, and she hunts takedowns at 2.34 per 15 minutes with 1.90 submission attempts in the same span. Macy Chiasson is the bigger frame at 71 inches tall with a 72-inch reach, and she is far more experienced with 14 UFC fights. But she lands 3.22 a minute, absorbs 2.81, and defends only 46% of strikes against Mesquita's 63%. Chiasson's takedown defence of 63% is decent, and she has been finished once by KO and once by submission.
The model likes Mesquita at 65% mainly because of the striking gap: better accuracy (52% to 46%), better defence, and a clear edge in differential per minute. Her 70% finish rate and submission volume against Chiasson's 34% finish rate add a second route to victory. Chiasson is also on a three-fight losing streak. The market is almost identical at 66%, so there is no real disagreement to explain. One caution: Mesquita has only 3 UFC fights, so her rates are a small sample and partly blended toward league averages.
Key question: can Chiasson use her length to keep Mesquita at range and stop the takedown and submission game from taking over?
Written by AI from the numbers below; it has no access to news or injuries.
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Tale of the tape (UFC fights only)
| Bia Mesquita | Macy Chiasson | |
|---|---|---|
| UFC record | 3-0 | 8-6 |
| Rating (Elo) | 1577 | 1542 |
| Sig. strikes landed / min | 3.86 | 3.22 |
| Sig. strikes absorbed / min | 2.37 | 2.81 |
| Striking accuracy | 53% | 46% |
| Striking defence | 63% | 46% |
| Takedowns / 15 min | 2.34 | 1.82 |
| Takedown defence | 59% | 63% |
| Submission attempts / 15 min | 1.90 | 0.40 |
| Knockdowns / 15 min | 0.14 | 0.20 |
| Finish rate | 70% | 34% |
| Streak | W3 | L3 |
| Days since last fight | 147 | 259 |
| Age | 36 | 35 |
| Height | — | 5'11" |
| Reach | — | 72" |
Rates for fighters with few UFC fights are blended toward league averages. The pick is logged with a timestamp before the event and graded on the track record, win or lose.