Bilal Hasan 1 UFC fight
Luis Gurule 5 UFC fights
Bilal Hasan vs Luis Gurule prediction
UFC 334 · Sunday, November 15, 2026. Our model gives Bilal Hasan a 76% chance to win.
Breakdown
Bilal Hasan is the younger and more dangerous fighter on paper, but his UFC sample is a single fight, so his numbers are heavily blended toward league averages and shouldn't be read as a real profile. Luis Gurule has five UFC fights and a clearer picture: he throws more (5.58 significant strikes a minute to Hasan's 4.56) but absorbs a lot (6.36 a minute), which makes his fights messy. Hasan's knockdown rate of 0.83 per 15 minutes is well above Gurule's 0.05, and Gurule's finish rate is just 7%. Neither man wrestles much. Gurule's takedown accuracy is only 20%, and both defend takedowns reasonably well. Gurule is 33 and carries a 64-inch reach at 65 inches tall.
Our model gives Hasan 76% mainly because of Elo (1528 against 1434), Gurule's weak smoothed win rate of 29%, and the gap in how many strikes each absorbs and how often each lands knockdowns. The market is higher on Hasan at 86%, a 10-point gap. The likeliest reason is that the market sees things the model can't, such as Hasan's regional record, his camp, or how he looked in his lone UFC fight. Our model only knows that one fight and treats it cautiously.
Key question: can Gurule's volume survive Hasan's power long enough to turn this into a grind?
Written by AI from the numbers below; it has no access to news or injuries.
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Tale of the tape (UFC fights only)
| Bilal Hasan | Luis Gurule | |
|---|---|---|
| UFC record | 1-0 | 1-4 |
| Rating (Elo) | 1528 | 1434 |
| Sig. strikes landed / min | 4.56 | 5.58 |
| Sig. strikes absorbed / min | 3.67 | 6.36 |
| Striking accuracy | 42% | 40% |
| Striking defence | 52% | 59% |
| Takedowns / 15 min | 1.54 | 0.92 |
| Takedown defence | 65% | 72% |
| Submission attempts / 15 min | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| Knockdowns / 15 min | 0.83 | 0.05 |
| Finish rate | 50% | 7% |
| Streak | W1 | L1 |
| Days since last fight | 78 | 169 |
| Age | 25 | 33 |
| Height | — | 5'5" |
| Reach | — | 64" |
Rates for fighters with few UFC fights are blended toward league averages. The pick is logged with a timestamp before the event and graded on the track record, win or lose.