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Cesar Almeida vs Donte Johnson prediction

UFC 334 · Saturday, November 14, 2026. Our model gives Donte Johnson a 77% chance to win.

Breakdown

Cesar Almeida is the taller man at 73 inches to Donte Johnson's 68, though their reach is identical at 74. Almeida lands a bit more on the feet, 3.44 significant strikes a minute to 3.04, and he is accurate at 58%. But his defence is shaky: he only avoids 45% of strikes, and he has been knocked out once. Johnson is the better defender at 60% and gives up fewer shots. The bigger gap is on the mat. Johnson attempts 1.70 takedowns per 15 minutes, stops 72% of attempts against him, and holds control for 26% of his fight time, against Almeida's 8%. Johnson also finishes half his fights and is nine years younger.

Our model likes Johnson at 77% because of that wrestling and control gap, his better striking defence, and his higher Elo (1569 to 1511) with a three-fight win streak. Almeida is 38 and has lost his last two. Caveat: Johnson has only three UFC fights, so his numbers are a small sample and are blended toward league averages. The market is much closer, at 58% for Johnson, a 19-point gap. The likeliest reason is that our model only sees UFC fights, so it can't weigh Almeida's size, his striking accuracy, or anything from outside the UFC that might make the market trust Johnson less.

Key question: can Johnson get Almeida to the mat and hold him there before Almeida's accurate, longer striking lands something big?

Written by AI from the numbers below; it has no access to news or injuries.

Tale of the tape (UFC fights only)

Rates for fighters with few UFC fights are blended toward league averages. The pick is logged with a timestamp before the event and graded on the track record, win or lose.