Charles Radtke 7 UFC fights
Stephen Thompson 22 UFC fights
Charles Radtke vs Stephen Thompson prediction
UFC 334 · Saturday, November 14, 2026. Our model gives Charles Radtke a 63% chance to win.
Breakdown
Radtke and Thompson meet as a clear contrast in styles. Thompson is the volume striker, landing 4.01 significant strikes a minute to Radtke's 2.66, and he has a 3-inch height edge and 3 inches of reach. Radtke is the more accurate striker (52% to 46%) and brings the only real grappling threat, with 1.85 takedowns per 15 minutes against Thompson's 0.28 and 47% control time against 6%. Thompson's takedown defence is a modest 63%. Both men have been knocked out twice, and both absorb strikes at a similar rate on paper, though Thompson's 3.01 per minute comes against a much heavier output. Radtke's finish rate is 39% to Thompson's 27%.
Our model likes Radtke at 63%, mainly because of his wrestling and control advantage, his better accuracy, and his recent form (a +2 streak against Thompson's -3). Thompson is 43.8 and has been out 490 days, which the model treats as a mild negative. The market disagrees by 18 points and prefers Thompson at 55%. The likeliest reason is that the model only sees UFC numbers and may undervalue Thompson's 22-fight experience and the quality of opposition behind his volume, along with anything about his layoff or camp that we can't see.
Key question: can Radtke get Thompson to the mat often enough to blunt the volume striking?
Written by AI from the numbers below; it has no access to news or injuries.
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Tale of the tape (UFC fights only)
| Charles Radtke | Stephen Thompson | |
|---|---|---|
| UFC record | 5-2 | 12-9-1 |
| Rating (Elo) | 1545 | 1575 |
| Sig. strikes landed / min | 2.66 | 4.01 |
| Sig. strikes absorbed / min | 2.62 | 3.02 |
| Striking accuracy | 52% | 46% |
| Striking defence | 55% | 55% |
| Takedowns / 15 min | 1.85 | 0.28 |
| Takedown defence | 75% | 64% |
| Submission attempts / 15 min | 0.50 | 0.02 |
| Knockdowns / 15 min | 0.45 | 0.46 |
| Finish rate | 39% | 27% |
| Streak | W2 | L3 |
| Days since last fight | 217 | 490 |
| Age | 36 | 44 |
| Height | 5'9" | 6'0" |
| Reach | 72" | 75" |
Rates for fighters with few UFC fights are blended toward league averages. The pick is logged with a timestamp before the event and graded on the track record, win or lose.