Chris Duncan 8 UFC fights
Drew Dober 26 UFC fights
Chris Duncan vs Drew Dober prediction
UFC 334 · Saturday, November 14, 2026. Our model gives Chris Duncan a 67% chance to win.
Breakdown
Chris Duncan and Drew Dober are almost mirror images on the feet. Both land around 4.4 significant strikes a minute, both absorb a little over 4, and both defend 53% of incoming strikes. Duncan is the more accurate striker at 46% against 41%, while Dober carries more knockdown power at 0.65 per 15 minutes to Duncan's 0.40. The grappling gap is clearer. Duncan attempts 2.5 takedowns per 15 minutes and holds control for 22% of fight time, while Dober attempts just 0.65. Both defend takedowns at 59%. Duncan is also younger by nearly five years, and he has a slight edge in height and reach.
Our model leans Duncan at 67% because of three things: his accuracy edge on the feet, his wrestling volume, and his age and rating advantage (1580 Elo to 1567, with a 70% smoothed win rate against 57%). Dober's durability is a concern for him, since he has been knocked out three times and submitted four. The market is closer at 56-44, an 11-point gap. The likeliest reason is that the model leans heavily on Duncan's efficiency numbers and may undervalue Dober's 26 fights of experience and his current two-fight win streak, while Duncan comes in on a loss. Dober's finishing power also gives him a live path that averages can understate.
Key question: can Duncan use his takedowns to avoid Dober's power, or does the fight stay standing, where Dober's knockdown threat matters most?
Written by AI from the numbers below; it has no access to news or injuries.
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Tale of the tape (UFC fights only)
| Chris Duncan | Drew Dober | |
|---|---|---|
| UFC record | 6-2 | 15-11 |
| Rating (Elo) | 1580 | 1567 |
| Sig. strikes landed / min | 4.37 | 4.41 |
| Sig. strikes absorbed / min | 4.06 | 4.26 |
| Striking accuracy | 46% | 41% |
| Striking defence | 53% | 53% |
| Takedowns / 15 min | 2.53 | 0.65 |
| Takedown defence | 59% | 59% |
| Submission attempts / 15 min | 0.62 | 0.10 |
| Knockdowns / 15 min | 0.40 | 0.65 |
| Finish rate | 35% | 45% |
| Streak | L1 | W2 |
| Days since last fight | 224 | 252 |
| Age | 34 | 38 |
| Height | 5'10" | 5'8" |
| Reach | 71" | 70" |
Rates for fighters with few UFC fights are blended toward league averages. The pick is logged with a timestamp before the event and graded on the track record, win or lose.