Jared Gordon 17 UFC fights
Melquizael Costa 10 UFC fights
Jared Gordon vs Melquizael Costa prediction
UFC 334 · Saturday, November 14, 2026. Our model gives Melquizael Costa a 72% chance to win.
Breakdown
Gordon brings the higher output, landing 5.72 significant strikes a minute to Costa's 4.17, and he mixes in about two takedowns per 15 minutes with decent defence at 60%. Costa is the more dangerous finisher: a 38% finish rate against Gordon's 18%, plus 0.80 submission attempts per 15 minutes, which is a real threat on the mat. Costa also has the physical edge, with a 3-inch reach advantage and about eight years of age on a 38-year-old opponent. Both men are coming off losses.
Our model likes Costa at 72% mainly because of his cleaner defensive profile and his experience-adjusted rating. He absorbs only 3.20 strikes a minute against Gordon's 4.50, and his Elo is 1585 to Gordon's 1525. Gordon's durability is a worry too, since he has been knocked out four times and submitted twice in 17 UFC fights. The market is a bit more confident at 78%, but the gap is only six points, so the two views are broadly aligned. Gordon's volume and wrestling give him a path if he can keep the pace high.
Key question: can Gordon's volume and takedowns outwork Costa, or does Costa's finishing threat and longer frame end it first?
Written by AI from the numbers below; it has no access to news or injuries.
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Tale of the tape (UFC fights only)
| Jared Gordon | Melquizael Costa | |
|---|---|---|
| UFC record | 9-8 | 7-3 |
| Rating (Elo) | 1525 | 1585 |
| Sig. strikes landed / min | 5.72 | 4.17 |
| Sig. strikes absorbed / min | 4.50 | 3.20 |
| Striking accuracy | 52% | 47% |
| Striking defence | 55% | 51% |
| Takedowns / 15 min | 1.94 | 1.50 |
| Takedown defence | 60% | 53% |
| Submission attempts / 15 min | 0.04 | 0.80 |
| Knockdowns / 15 min | 0.17 | 0.28 |
| Finish rate | 18% | 38% |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Days since last fight | 189 | 182 |
| Age | 38 | 30 |
| Height | 5'9" | 5'10" |
| Reach | 68" | 71" |
Rates for fighters with few UFC fights are blended toward league averages. The pick is logged with a timestamp before the event and graded on the track record, win or lose.