UFC 335 predictions

Nickal and Pyfer meet as two finishers with different routes to the same result. Pyfer throws slightly more (3.49 significant strikes a minute to 3.34) and carries the bigger knockdown rate, 0.91 per 15 minutes against 0.74. But he absorbs 3.33 a minute and lands just 43% of his strikes, while Nickal lands 59% and gives up only 2.29. The wrestling gap is clear: Nickal attempts 2.11 takedowns per 15 minutes and stops 82% of those against him, while Pyfer stops 66%. Nickal also holds control 31% of the time to Pyfer's 12%. Size is close, with Pyfer an inch taller and Nickal an inch longer in reach.

Our model leans Nickal at 57% to 43% because of three things: his accuracy and defence on the feet, his takedown defence, and his control time edge. Those suggest he can pick when and where the fight happens. Pyfer's Elo (1631 to 1594) and four-fight win streak keep the gap modest, and Nickal has been knocked out once, so Pyfer's power is a real threat. No betting market line is available to compare against.

Key question: can Pyfer land something heavy before Nickal drags him to the mat and starts controlling the fight?

Pereira and Pavlovich are two heavy hitters with similar UFC résumés, but they get there differently. Pereira lands more (4.84 significant strikes a minute to 4.26) and is far more accurate, at 61% to 45%. Pavlovich is the bigger knockdown threat at 1.58 per 15 minutes against 0.71, and he has a five-inch reach advantage (84 to 79 inches). Neither man wrestles much, though Pavlovich shoots more often and holds more control time (13% to 3%). Both have been knocked out twice, and both finish a little over half their fights.

Our model leans Pavlovich at 59%, mostly on three things: his knockdown rate, his reach, and his current three-fight win streak against Pereira's -1 streak. Age also plays a part, as Pereira is 39 and Pavlovich is 34. Pereira's better accuracy and Elo edge (1665 to 1644) keep this close. The market is at 64% for Pavlovich, only five points away from us, so the two largely agree.

Key question: can Pereira get inside Pavlovich's long reach and land his accurate shots first, or will Pavlovich's power land before that happens?