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Alex Pereira vs Sergei Pavlovich prediction

UFC 335 · Sunday, December 13, 2026. Our model gives Sergei Pavlovich a 59% chance to win.

Breakdown

Pereira and Pavlovich are two heavy hitters with similar UFC résumés, but they get there differently. Pereira lands more (4.84 significant strikes a minute to 4.26) and is far more accurate, at 61% to 45%. Pavlovich is the bigger knockdown threat at 1.58 per 15 minutes against 0.71, and he has a five-inch reach advantage (84 to 79 inches). Neither man wrestles much, though Pavlovich shoots more often and holds more control time (13% to 3%). Both have been knocked out twice, and both finish a little over half their fights.

Our model leans Pavlovich at 59%, mostly on three things: his knockdown rate, his reach, and his current three-fight win streak against Pereira's -1 streak. Age also plays a part, as Pereira is 39 and Pavlovich is 34. Pereira's better accuracy and Elo edge (1665 to 1644) keep this close. The market is at 64% for Pavlovich, only five points away from us, so the two largely agree.

Key question: can Pereira get inside Pavlovich's long reach and land his accurate shots first, or will Pavlovich's power land before that happens?

Written by AI from the numbers below; it has no access to news or injuries.

Tale of the tape (UFC fights only)

Rates for fighters with few UFC fights are blended toward league averages. The pick is logged with a timestamp before the event and graded on the track record, win or lose.