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Andre Petroski vs Mantas Kondratavicius prediction

UFC Vegas 124 · Saturday, November 7, 2026. Our model gives Mantas Kondratavicius a 68% chance to win.

Breakdown

Petroski is a 13-fight UFC veteran who is a grappling-minded, low-volume striker: he lands 2.81 significant strikes a minute but absorbs 3.02, and he has been knocked out four times. His 2.94 takedown attempts per 15 minutes and 80% takedown defence are his best tools, though he has lost his last three. Kondratavicius throws far more, landing 4.15 a minute at 61% accuracy while absorbing just 2.22, and his 0.62 knockdowns per 15 minutes is a real power signal. He is also two inches taller with a two-inch reach edge and is eight years younger. Keep in mind he has only one UFC fight, so his numbers are a small sample heavily blended toward league averages, not a settled profile.

Our model likes Kondratavicius at 68%, driven by the gap in striking output and damage taken, Petroski's durability record against a heavier-hitting opponent, and the age and reach advantages. His Elo (1518) is actually a bit lower than Petroski's (1544), so the lean comes from style and physical traits rather than résumé. The market is close to us, at 74% for Kondratavicius, a gap of only six points, so there is no real disagreement. Given the thin UFC sample on Kondratavicius, confidence should be moderate.

Key question: can Petroski make this a grappling fight, or does Kondratavicius's volume and power finish him on the feet?

Written by AI from the numbers below; it has no access to news or injuries.

Tale of the tape (UFC fights only)

Rates for fighters with few UFC fights are blended toward league averages. The pick is logged with a timestamp before the event and graded on the track record, win or lose.