UFC Vegas 124 predictions

Milosevic brings a cleaner striking profile into this one. She lands 3.77 significant strikes a minute and absorbs 3.35, with 63% defence, while Cachoeira lands a bit more at 4.23 but absorbs 7.00 with just 46% defence. Wrestling is a minor factor: neither woman takes down much or controls the clock, and their takedown defence is nearly identical at 71% and 69%. Cachoeira has been submitted five times in 14 UFC fights, so any grappling Milosevic does attempt carries real finishing risk. Cachoeira is 38 and on a three-fight losing streak, and Milosevic is eight years younger.

Our model gives Milosevic 82%, and the market is almost the same at 81%, so there is no real disagreement. The drivers are the gap in striking differential, Cachoeira's poor defence and heavy damage absorbed, and her loss streak, set against Milosevic's higher Elo of 1522 to 1450. One caution: Milosevic has only one UFC fight, so her rates are heavily blended toward league averages and are a small sample, not a settled profile.

Key question: can Cachoeira's volume offset her defensive leaks, or does Milosevic simply out-land her and find a finish?

Both men have just one UFC fight, so the numbers below come from a small sample and are heavily blended toward league averages. They are not real profiles yet. On paper, the striking output is nearly identical: Nakamura lands 3.28 significant strikes a minute to Schmid's 3.29, and both are 40% accurate. The gaps show up elsewhere. Nakamura defends strikes better (60% to 51%) and carries more knockdown power at 0.65 per 15 minutes. Schmid attempts more takedowns (1.10 to 0.68 per 15 minutes) and holds more control time, 16% to 9%. Nakamura has a 50% finish rate and has never been KO'd. Schmid was knocked out once. Nakamura is also two years older, 27.9 to 25.9, while his listed height and reach are both 70 inches. We have no height or reach figure for Schmid.

Our model leans only slightly to Nakamura at 53%. The drivers are his edge in Elo (1528 to 1475), his better striking defence, and his higher knockdown rate. The market is far more confident at 76%, a 23-point gap. The most likely reason is that our model knows only UFC fights, so it can't see regional records, camp changes or recent news that bettors may be weighing. With one fight each, our read is low confidence.

Key question: can Schmid turn the fight into grappling exchanges before Nakamura's sharper defence and power take over on the feet?

Fernandes is the busier striker, landing 3.48 significant strikes a minute to Silva's 2.42, but she also absorbs 4.96 a minute with 53% defence, so her fights tend to be exchanges she doesn't clearly win. Silva is the grappler. She attempts 1.96 takedowns per 15 minutes at 48% accuracy, holds control for 23% of her fight time and throws 1.25 submission attempts per 15 minutes. Fernandes defends 68% of takedowns, which is solid, but she has rarely been the one controlling the fight (7% control share). Silva also has the better finish rate (35% to 19%). Reach and height are nearly even.

Our model gives Silva 63% mainly because of three things: her higher Elo (1558 to 1513), her grappling output and control against Fernandes' modest takedown game, and the gap in strikes absorbed (2.74 against 4.96 a minute). The market is close at 67%, so there is no real disagreement. Both women are on losing streaks and have had long layoffs, so neither arrives with momentum.

Key question: can Fernandes keep the fight standing and win the volume battle, or does Silva get her to the mat and hunt a submission?

Both men have just one UFC fight, so the numbers below come from a small sample and are blended toward league averages. They shouldn't be read as real profiles. On the page, Delano is the more active striker at 5.22 significant strikes landed per minute against 3.35 for Magomedov, with better accuracy (58% to 48%) and defence (64% to 59%). Magomedov brings the grappling: 2.12 takedowns per 15 minutes to Delano's 0.65, 1.38 submission attempts per 15 minutes, and a 22% control share against 11%. Magomedov also carries the higher finish rate at 50%. Reach is even at 70 inches, Magomedov is an inch taller and nearly three years younger.

Our model leans Magomedov at 55%, a modest edge. The drivers are his grappling output, his finishing numbers, and a slightly higher Elo (1529 to 1521). Delano's takedown defence of 73% against Magomedov's 65% accuracy-adjusted threat keeps this close. The market sees it the other way, with Delano at 52%, a gap of seven points, so the disagreement is small. With so little UFC data on either man, treat this lean as low confidence.

Key question: can Delano's cleaner striking keep the fight standing, or does Magomedov's wrestling drag it to the mat?

Petroski is a 13-fight UFC veteran who is a grappling-minded, low-volume striker: he lands 2.81 significant strikes a minute but absorbs 3.02, and he has been knocked out four times. His 2.94 takedown attempts per 15 minutes and 80% takedown defence are his best tools, though he has lost his last three. Kondratavicius throws far more, landing 4.15 a minute at 61% accuracy while absorbing just 2.22, and his 0.62 knockdowns per 15 minutes is a real power signal. He is also two inches taller with a two-inch reach edge and is eight years younger. Keep in mind he has only one UFC fight, so his numbers are a small sample heavily blended toward league averages, not a settled profile.

Our model likes Kondratavicius at 68%, driven by the gap in striking output and damage taken, Petroski's durability record against a heavier-hitting opponent, and the age and reach advantages. His Elo (1518) is actually a bit lower than Petroski's (1544), so the lean comes from style and physical traits rather than résumé. The market is close to us, at 74% for Kondratavicius, a gap of only six points, so there is no real disagreement. Given the thin UFC sample on Kondratavicius, confidence should be moderate.

Key question: can Petroski make this a grappling fight, or does Kondratavicius's volume and power finish him on the feet?

Seokhyeon Ko and Wellington Turman land at a similar pace, about 3.1 and 3.2 significant strikes a minute, but the difference is what comes back. Ko absorbs just 1.93 a minute and defends 63% of strikes, while Turman absorbs 4.05 and defends 46%. Ko also pushes the wrestling, with 2.83 takedowns per 15 minutes and 49% control time, against Turman's 1.52 and 28%. Turman has been stopped twice and submitted once, and he brings a bit of height at 72 inches to Ko's 70. Neither man is a big finisher, at 10% and 14%. Ko's numbers come from only 3 UFC fights, so that sample is small and his rates are pulled toward league averages.

Our model gives Ko 76% mainly because of the defensive gap (1.93 absorbed against 4.05), his control time edge, and a higher Elo, 1526 to 1457. Turman is on a three-fight losing streak and hasn't fought in 1,071 days, which the model reads as a negative. The market is higher on Ko at 84%, an 8-point gap, so the two views are fairly close. The market may simply be weighing Ko's small but clean UFC sample more heavily than our model does.

Key question: can Turman make this a striking exchange without absorbing more than he lands, or does Ko's takedown pressure and tighter defence take over?

Both men have just one UFC fight, so treat every rate here as a small sample pulled toward league averages rather than a real profile. On paper, Jonny Parsons lands a bit more (4.51 significant strikes a minute to 4.05), defends better (63% to 56%) and carries more knockdown power at 1.35 per 15 minutes against 0.12. Jose Souza's numbers are close to average everywhere, and his takedown and control figures are modest. Neither fighter shows much wrestling threat. Parsons has a small edge in control time, 17% to 8%. The physical gap is unclear, since we have no height or reach figure for Souza.

Our model leans Parsons at 56%, driven by his sharper striking defence, his knockdown rate and a 7-point Elo edge (1529 to 1522), which is tiny. Parsons is also 35 and has been out 1,204 days, which the model weighs against him, while Souza fought 161 days ago. The market sees it very differently, making Souza 69%, a 25-point gap. The most likely reason is information the model can't see, such as regional records, camp changes, or how the ring rust and age of Parsons are viewed. The model only knows one UFC fight for each man, so confidence is low.

Key question: can Parsons turn his striking and power edge into a finish after more than three years away, or does Souza's recent activity decide it?

Austin Bashi brings a small, three-fight UFC sample, so his numbers are heavily blended toward league averages and shouldn't be read as a firm profile. What we see is a modest striker, landing 2.19 significant strikes a minute and absorbing 2.64, with 54% striking defence. His wrestling is the more active part of his game: 2.56 takedown attempts per 15 minutes, though only 24% land, and he holds 31% control time. Carlos Calderon is a UFC debutant, so we have no UFC data on his style. Physically, he is five inches taller (71 to 66) with a one-inch reach edge, and he is about five and a half years older.

The model leans Bashi at 64%, but with low confidence. With nothing on Calderon, it is essentially rating Bashi's UFC résumé against an unknown, and his Elo of 1492 sits close to average. The market is far more bullish at 85%, a 21-point gap. The likeliest reason is that the model only sees UFC fights, so Calderon's regional record, finishing history and level of competition are invisible to it, while bettors can weigh them. The market may also be rating Bashi's age and recent activity more kindly than a thin sample allows.

Key question: can Bashi use his takedown attempts to negate Calderon's size, or does the debutant's unseen skill set make up for the gap in UFC experience?