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Austin Bashi vs Carlos Calderon prediction

UFC Vegas 124 · Saturday, November 7, 2026. Our model gives Austin Bashi a 64% chance to win.

Breakdown

Austin Bashi brings a small, three-fight UFC sample, so his numbers are heavily blended toward league averages and shouldn't be read as a firm profile. What we see is a modest striker, landing 2.19 significant strikes a minute and absorbing 2.64, with 54% striking defence. His wrestling is the more active part of his game: 2.56 takedown attempts per 15 minutes, though only 24% land, and he holds 31% control time. Carlos Calderon is a UFC debutant, so we have no UFC data on his style. Physically, he is five inches taller (71 to 66) with a one-inch reach edge, and he is about five and a half years older.

The model leans Bashi at 64%, but with low confidence. With nothing on Calderon, it is essentially rating Bashi's UFC résumé against an unknown, and his Elo of 1492 sits close to average. The market is far more bullish at 85%, a 21-point gap. The likeliest reason is that the model only sees UFC fights, so Calderon's regional record, finishing history and level of competition are invisible to it, while bettors can weigh them. The market may also be rating Bashi's age and recent activity more kindly than a thin sample allows.

Key question: can Bashi use his takedown attempts to negate Calderon's size, or does the debutant's unseen skill set make up for the gap in UFC experience?

Written by AI from the numbers below; it has no access to news or injuries.

Tale of the tape (UFC fights only)

Rates for fighters with few UFC fights are blended toward league averages. The pick is logged with a timestamp before the event and graded on the track record, win or lose.