Jonny Parsons 1 UFC fight
Jose Souza 1 UFC fight
Jonny Parsons vs Jose Souza prediction
UFC Vegas 124 · Saturday, November 7, 2026. Our model gives Jonny Parsons a 56% chance to win.
Breakdown
Both men have just one UFC fight, so treat every rate here as a small sample pulled toward league averages rather than a real profile. On paper, Jonny Parsons lands a bit more (4.51 significant strikes a minute to 4.05), defends better (63% to 56%) and carries more knockdown power at 1.35 per 15 minutes against 0.12. Jose Souza's numbers are close to average everywhere, and his takedown and control figures are modest. Neither fighter shows much wrestling threat. Parsons has a small edge in control time, 17% to 8%. The physical gap is unclear, since we have no height or reach figure for Souza.
Our model leans Parsons at 56%, driven by his sharper striking defence, his knockdown rate and a 7-point Elo edge (1529 to 1522), which is tiny. Parsons is also 35 and has been out 1,204 days, which the model weighs against him, while Souza fought 161 days ago. The market sees it very differently, making Souza 69%, a 25-point gap. The most likely reason is information the model can't see, such as regional records, camp changes, or how the ring rust and age of Parsons are viewed. The model only knows one UFC fight for each man, so confidence is low.
Key question: can Parsons turn his striking and power edge into a finish after more than three years away, or does Souza's recent activity decide it?
Written by AI from the numbers below; it has no access to news or injuries.
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Tale of the tape (UFC fights only)
| Jonny Parsons | Jose Souza | |
|---|---|---|
| UFC record | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Rating (Elo) | 1529 | 1522 |
| Sig. strikes landed / min | 4.51 | 4.05 |
| Sig. strikes absorbed / min | 3.75 | 3.75 |
| Striking accuracy | 49% | 47% |
| Striking defence | 63% | 56% |
| Takedowns / 15 min | 0.78 | 0.65 |
| Takedown defence | 71% | 65% |
| Submission attempts / 15 min | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| Knockdowns / 15 min | 1.35 | 0.13 |
| Finish rate | 50% | 17% |
| Streak | W1 | W1 |
| Days since last fight | 1204 | 161 |
| Age | 35 | — |
| Height | 5'9" | — |
| Reach | 69" | — |
Rates for fighters with few UFC fights are blended toward league averages. The pick is logged with a timestamp before the event and graded on the track record, win or lose.