Seokhyeon Ko 3 UFC fights
Wellington Turman 9 UFC fights
Seokhyeon Ko vs Wellington Turman prediction
UFC Vegas 124 · Saturday, November 7, 2026. Our model gives Seokhyeon Ko a 76% chance to win.
Breakdown
Seokhyeon Ko and Wellington Turman land at a similar pace, about 3.1 and 3.2 significant strikes a minute, but the difference is what comes back. Ko absorbs just 1.93 a minute and defends 63% of strikes, while Turman absorbs 4.05 and defends 46%. Ko also pushes the wrestling, with 2.83 takedowns per 15 minutes and 49% control time, against Turman's 1.52 and 28%. Turman has been stopped twice and submitted once, and he brings a bit of height at 72 inches to Ko's 70. Neither man is a big finisher, at 10% and 14%. Ko's numbers come from only 3 UFC fights, so that sample is small and his rates are pulled toward league averages.
Our model gives Ko 76% mainly because of the defensive gap (1.93 absorbed against 4.05), his control time edge, and a higher Elo, 1526 to 1457. Turman is on a three-fight losing streak and hasn't fought in 1,071 days, which the model reads as a negative. The market is higher on Ko at 84%, an 8-point gap, so the two views are fairly close. The market may simply be weighing Ko's small but clean UFC sample more heavily than our model does.
Key question: can Turman make this a striking exchange without absorbing more than he lands, or does Ko's takedown pressure and tighter defence take over?
Written by AI from the numbers below; it has no access to news or injuries.
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Tale of the tape (UFC fights only)
| Seokhyeon Ko | Wellington Turman | |
|---|---|---|
| UFC record | 2-1 | 3-6 |
| Rating (Elo) | 1526 | 1457 |
| Sig. strikes landed / min | 3.08 | 3.24 |
| Sig. strikes absorbed / min | 1.93 | 4.05 |
| Striking accuracy | 49% | 51% |
| Striking defence | 63% | 46% |
| Takedowns / 15 min | 2.83 | 1.52 |
| Takedown defence | 59% | 50% |
| Submission attempts / 15 min | 0.38 | 0.74 |
| Knockdowns / 15 min | 0.06 | 0.03 |
| Finish rate | 10% | 14% |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Days since last fight | 112 | 1071 |
| Age | 33 | 30 |
| Height | 5'10" | 6'0" |
| Reach | 71" | 72" |
Rates for fighters with few UFC fights are blended toward league averages. The pick is logged with a timestamp before the event and graded on the track record, win or lose.