Keiichiro Nakamura 1 UFC fight
Ollie Schmid 1 UFC fight
Keiichiro Nakamura vs Ollie Schmid prediction
UFC Vegas 124 · Saturday, November 7, 2026. Our model gives Keiichiro Nakamura a 53% chance to win.
Breakdown
Both men have just one UFC fight, so the numbers below come from a small sample and are heavily blended toward league averages. They are not real profiles yet. On paper, the striking output is nearly identical: Nakamura lands 3.28 significant strikes a minute to Schmid's 3.29, and both are 40% accurate. The gaps show up elsewhere. Nakamura defends strikes better (60% to 51%) and carries more knockdown power at 0.65 per 15 minutes. Schmid attempts more takedowns (1.10 to 0.68 per 15 minutes) and holds more control time, 16% to 9%. Nakamura has a 50% finish rate and has never been KO'd. Schmid was knocked out once. Nakamura is also two years older, 27.9 to 25.9, while his listed height and reach are both 70 inches. We have no height or reach figure for Schmid.
Our model leans only slightly to Nakamura at 53%. The drivers are his edge in Elo (1528 to 1475), his better striking defence, and his higher knockdown rate. The market is far more confident at 76%, a 23-point gap. The most likely reason is that our model knows only UFC fights, so it can't see regional records, camp changes or recent news that bettors may be weighing. With one fight each, our read is low confidence.
Key question: can Schmid turn the fight into grappling exchanges before Nakamura's sharper defence and power take over on the feet?
Written by AI from the numbers below; it has no access to news or injuries.
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Tale of the tape (UFC fights only)
| Keiichiro Nakamura | Ollie Schmid | |
|---|---|---|
| UFC record | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Rating (Elo) | 1528 | 1475 |
| Sig. strikes landed / min | 3.28 | 3.29 |
| Sig. strikes absorbed / min | 4.46 | 4.02 |
| Striking accuracy | 40% | 40% |
| Striking defence | 60% | 51% |
| Takedowns / 15 min | 0.68 | 1.10 |
| Takedown defence | 59% | 65% |
| Submission attempts / 15 min | 0.26 | 0.42 |
| Knockdowns / 15 min | 0.65 | 0.21 |
| Finish rate | 50% | 17% |
| Streak | W1 | L1 |
| Days since last fight | 280 | 189 |
| Age | 28 | 26 |
| Height | 5'10" | — |
| Reach | 70" | — |
Rates for fighters with few UFC fights are blended toward league averages. The pick is logged with a timestamp before the event and graded on the track record, win or lose.