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Gabriella Fernandes vs Karine Silva prediction

UFC Vegas 124 · Saturday, November 7, 2026. Our model gives Karine Silva a 63% chance to win.

Breakdown

Fernandes is the busier striker, landing 3.48 significant strikes a minute to Silva's 2.42, but she also absorbs 4.96 a minute with 53% defence, so her fights tend to be exchanges she doesn't clearly win. Silva is the grappler. She attempts 1.96 takedowns per 15 minutes at 48% accuracy, holds control for 23% of her fight time and throws 1.25 submission attempts per 15 minutes. Fernandes defends 68% of takedowns, which is solid, but she has rarely been the one controlling the fight (7% control share). Silva also has the better finish rate (35% to 19%). Reach and height are nearly even.

Our model gives Silva 63% mainly because of three things: her higher Elo (1558 to 1513), her grappling output and control against Fernandes' modest takedown game, and the gap in strikes absorbed (2.74 against 4.96 a minute). The market is close at 67%, so there is no real disagreement. Both women are on losing streaks and have had long layoffs, so neither arrives with momentum.

Key question: can Fernandes keep the fight standing and win the volume battle, or does Silva get her to the mat and hunt a submission?

Written by AI from the numbers below; it has no access to news or injuries.

Tale of the tape (UFC fights only)

Rates for fighters with few UFC fights are blended toward league averages. The pick is logged with a timestamp before the event and graded on the track record, win or lose.