Billy Elekana 4 UFC fights
Lucas Fernando 1 UFC fight
Billy Elekana vs Lucas Fernando prediction
UFC Vegas 124 · Sunday, November 8, 2026. Our model gives Lucas Fernando a 63% chance to win.
Breakdown
Billy Elekana and Lucas Fernando are the same height, but they meet with different profiles. Fernando lands more on the feet, 4.53 significant strikes a minute to Elekana's 2.89, and he absorbs fewer (2.39 against 3.50). His knockdown rate of 1.29 per 15 minutes is well above Elekana's 0.37, and he has a 3-inch reach edge. Wrestling looks fairly even and neither man controls much, though Elekana has the better takedown defence (65% to 59%) and more submission attempts. Fernando has only one UFC fight, so his numbers are a small sample, heavily blended toward league averages, and not a real profile.
Our model likes Fernando at 63%, mainly because of the gap in striking output, the defensive numbers (66% striking defence to Elekana's 48%) and the reach. Elekana's three-fight streak and 281 days off keep him in it. The betting market is more confident in Fernando at 74%, 11 points above us. The likeliest reason is that the market is weighing things the model can't see, such as Fernando's fights outside the UFC, or it simply trusts his one UFC performance more than our blended numbers do.
Key question: can Elekana's durability and grappling slow Fernando down, or will Fernando's volume and power take over on the feet?
Written by AI from the numbers below; it has no access to news or injuries.
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Tale of the tape (UFC fights only)
| Billy Elekana | Lucas Fernando | |
|---|---|---|
| UFC record | 3-1 | 1-0 |
| Rating (Elo) | 1550 | 1525 |
| Sig. strikes landed / min | 2.89 | 4.53 |
| Sig. strikes absorbed / min | 3.50 | 2.39 |
| Striking accuracy | 54% | 55% |
| Striking defence | 48% | 66% |
| Takedowns / 15 min | 0.98 | 0.74 |
| Takedown defence | 65% | 59% |
| Submission attempts / 15 min | 0.74 | 0.29 |
| Knockdowns / 15 min | 0.37 | 1.29 |
| Finish rate | 42% | 50% |
| Streak | W3 | W1 |
| Days since last fight | 281 | 85 |
| Age | 31 | 30 |
| Height | 6'3" | 6'3" |
| Reach | 77" | 80" |
Rates for fighters with few UFC fights are blended toward league averages. The pick is logged with a timestamp before the event and graded on the track record, win or lose.