UFC Vegas 124 predictions

This looks like a volume-versus-power matchup. Waldo Cortes Acosta lands more, at 4.74 significant strikes a minute against Johnny Walker's 3.73, and he defends better too (55% to 49%). Walker is the bigger threat to end it, with 0.74 knockdowns per 15 minutes and a 47% finish rate, but he has been knocked out four times, while Cortes Acosta has never been finished. Neither man wrestles much. Both have a 9% control time share and under half a takedown per 15 minutes, so the fight should stay on the feet. Walker has a clear physical edge at 78 inches tall with an 82-inch reach.

Our model gives Cortes Acosta 59%, mostly on his higher Elo (1611 to 1571), his better striking output and defence, and his clean record of never being finished. Walker's 34.6 age and durability record add to the lean. The market is more confident at 68%, nine points above us, which is just under our threshold for flagging a disagreement. Cortes Acosta has lost his last two, though, and the model may be giving that less weight than a bettor would.

Key question: can Walker land one big shot with his reach before Cortes Acosta's volume and sturdier chin take over?

This is a grappler-versus-grappler fight with a clear gap in how cleanly each one fights. Suarez lands more (3.07 significant strikes a minute) while absorbing far less (2.01), and she hits at 58% accuracy. Jandiroba is the more active submission hunter at 1.32 attempts per 15 minutes, but she gives up 2.89 strikes a minute and lands only 2.36. Suarez drives takedowns at 4.49 per 15 minutes and holds control for 64% of her fight time. Jandiroba defends takedowns well at 71%, so the wrestling exchanges could be tighter than Suarez's usual rounds. Suarez also has a slight edge in height and reach, and neither woman has ever been knocked out or submitted in the UFC.

Our model gives Suarez 68%, driven by her striking margin, her control time, and her higher finish rate (54% against 30%). Her Elo of 1660 also sits above Jandiroba's 1607. The market is close at 65%, so there is no real disagreement. Jandiroba's edge in takedown defence and submission volume is why this isn't more lopsided, and she is 38 against Suarez's nearly 36.

Key question: can Jandiroba stuff enough takedowns to turn this into a scramble fight, or will Suarez's pressure and control take over?

Davey Grant is the volume striker here, landing 5.42 significant strikes a minute against 3.54 for Elijah Smith, though he also absorbs almost 4 a minute with 55% defence. Smith is the more well-rounded threat, with 1.60 takedowns per 15 minutes, 29% control time and nearly a submission attempt per 15 minutes. Grant's takedown defence is a decent 65%, but he has been submitted four times in 16 UFC fights. Smith is 24 against a 40-year-old, with a 2-inch reach edge and a 1-inch height edge. Smith has a 50% finish rate to Grant's 25%.

Our model likes Smith at 78%, and the market is close at 74%, so there is no real disagreement. Three things drive the pick: Smith's higher Elo (1573 to 1537), his much lower strikes absorbed per minute (2.30 versus 3.99), and Grant's history of submission losses against Smith's grappling. The age gap also weighs against Grant. One caution: Smith has only 3 UFC fights, so his rates are heavily blended toward league averages and that sample is small. The model's confidence in him is partly an estimate rather than a proven profile.

Key question: can Grant's volume striking keep the fight standing, or does Smith get him to the mat and find a submission?

Billy Elekana and Lucas Fernando are the same height, but they meet with different profiles. Fernando lands more on the feet, 4.53 significant strikes a minute to Elekana's 2.89, and he absorbs fewer (2.39 against 3.50). His knockdown rate of 1.29 per 15 minutes is well above Elekana's 0.37, and he has a 3-inch reach edge. Wrestling looks fairly even and neither man controls much, though Elekana has the better takedown defence (65% to 59%) and more submission attempts. Fernando has only one UFC fight, so his numbers are a small sample, heavily blended toward league averages, and not a real profile.

Our model likes Fernando at 63%, mainly because of the gap in striking output, the defensive numbers (66% striking defence to Elekana's 48%) and the reach. Elekana's three-fight streak and 281 days off keep him in it. The betting market is more confident in Fernando at 74%, 11 points above us. The likeliest reason is that the market is weighing things the model can't see, such as Fernando's fights outside the UFC, or it simply trusts his one UFC performance more than our blended numbers do.

Key question: can Elekana's durability and grappling slow Fernando down, or will Fernando's volume and power take over on the feet?

Marcos Degli is a UFC debutant, so the model has no UFC data on him and there is no style profile to describe. Mitch Raposo has four UFC fights, which is still a small sample, so his numbers are only a rough sketch. He lands 2.11 significant strikes a minute and absorbs 2.97, with 60% striking defence. He attempts 1.66 takedowns per 15 minutes but connects on only 33%, and his 69% takedown defence is decent. His finish rate is 8% and he has never been knocked out or submitted. He is compact at 65 inches with a 64-inch reach, and he comes in on a two-fight win streak.

The model leans Raposo at 61% mostly because he is the only fighter it can measure. His Elo of 1509 sits slightly above average, he has that +2 streak, and he has not been finished in the UFC. The pick is low confidence, because Degli's side of the ledger is blank. The market sees it very differently, with Degli at 68%, a 29-point gap from our number. The most likely reason is that the model only knows UFC fights, so Degli's regional record, finishing history, camp or recent news are all invisible to it, while bettors can price those in.

Key question: does Degli's unseen pre-UFC form translate against a durable, if modest, veteran like Raposo?