Tatiana Suarez 10 UFC fights
Virna Jandiroba 13 UFC fights
Tatiana Suarez vs Virna Jandiroba prediction
UFC Vegas 124 · Sunday, November 8, 2026. Our model gives Tatiana Suarez a 68% chance to win.
Breakdown
This is a grappler-versus-grappler fight with a clear gap in how cleanly each one fights. Suarez lands more (3.07 significant strikes a minute) while absorbing far less (2.01), and she hits at 58% accuracy. Jandiroba is the more active submission hunter at 1.32 attempts per 15 minutes, but she gives up 2.89 strikes a minute and lands only 2.36. Suarez drives takedowns at 4.49 per 15 minutes and holds control for 64% of her fight time. Jandiroba defends takedowns well at 71%, so the wrestling exchanges could be tighter than Suarez's usual rounds. Suarez also has a slight edge in height and reach, and neither woman has ever been knocked out or submitted in the UFC.
Our model gives Suarez 68%, driven by her striking margin, her control time, and her higher finish rate (54% against 30%). Her Elo of 1660 also sits above Jandiroba's 1607. The market is close at 65%, so there is no real disagreement. Jandiroba's edge in takedown defence and submission volume is why this isn't more lopsided, and she is 38 against Suarez's nearly 36.
Key question: can Jandiroba stuff enough takedowns to turn this into a scramble fight, or will Suarez's pressure and control take over?
Written by AI from the numbers below; it has no access to news or injuries.
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Tale of the tape (UFC fights only)
| Tatiana Suarez | Virna Jandiroba | |
|---|---|---|
| UFC record | 9-1 | 9-4 |
| Rating (Elo) | 1660 | 1607 |
| Sig. strikes landed / min | 3.07 | 2.36 |
| Sig. strikes absorbed / min | 2.01 | 2.89 |
| Striking accuracy | 58% | 42% |
| Striking defence | 45% | 56% |
| Takedowns / 15 min | 4.49 | 2.98 |
| Takedown defence | 62% | 71% |
| Submission attempts / 15 min | 0.65 | 1.32 |
| Knockdowns / 15 min | 0.03 | 0.10 |
| Finish rate | 54% | 30% |
| Streak | W2 | W1 |
| Days since last fight | 211 | 218 |
| Age | 36 | 38 |
| Height | 5'5" | 5'3" |
| Reach | 66" | 64" |
Rates for fighters with few UFC fights are blended toward league averages. The pick is logged with a timestamp before the event and graded on the track record, win or lose.