Davey Grant 16 UFC fights
Elijah Smith 3 UFC fights
Davey Grant vs Elijah Smith prediction
UFC Vegas 124 · Sunday, November 8, 2026. Our model gives Elijah Smith a 78% chance to win.
Breakdown
Davey Grant is the volume striker here, landing 5.42 significant strikes a minute against 3.54 for Elijah Smith, though he also absorbs almost 4 a minute with 55% defence. Smith is the more well-rounded threat, with 1.60 takedowns per 15 minutes, 29% control time and nearly a submission attempt per 15 minutes. Grant's takedown defence is a decent 65%, but he has been submitted four times in 16 UFC fights. Smith is 24 against a 40-year-old, with a 2-inch reach edge and a 1-inch height edge. Smith has a 50% finish rate to Grant's 25%.
Our model likes Smith at 78%, and the market is close at 74%, so there is no real disagreement. Three things drive the pick: Smith's higher Elo (1573 to 1537), his much lower strikes absorbed per minute (2.30 versus 3.99), and Grant's history of submission losses against Smith's grappling. The age gap also weighs against Grant. One caution: Smith has only 3 UFC fights, so his rates are heavily blended toward league averages and that sample is small. The model's confidence in him is partly an estimate rather than a proven profile.
Key question: can Grant's volume striking keep the fight standing, or does Smith get him to the mat and find a submission?
Written by AI from the numbers below; it has no access to news or injuries.
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Tale of the tape (UFC fights only)
| Davey Grant | Elijah Smith | |
|---|---|---|
| UFC record | 9-7 | 3-0 |
| Rating (Elo) | 1537 | 1573 |
| Sig. strikes landed / min | 5.42 | 3.54 |
| Sig. strikes absorbed / min | 3.98 | 2.30 |
| Striking accuracy | 46% | 52% |
| Striking defence | 55% | 53% |
| Takedowns / 15 min | 0.97 | 1.60 |
| Takedown defence | 65% | 54% |
| Submission attempts / 15 min | 0.18 | 0.93 |
| Knockdowns / 15 min | 0.31 | 0.47 |
| Finish rate | 25% | 50% |
| Streak | W1 | W3 |
| Days since last fight | 197 | 239 |
| Age | 41 | 24 |
| Height | 5'8" | 5'9" |
| Reach | 69" | 71" |
Rates for fighters with few UFC fights are blended toward league averages. The pick is logged with a timestamp before the event and graded on the track record, win or lose.