Marcos Degli UFC debut
Mitch Raposo 4 UFC fights
Marcos Degli vs Mitch Raposo prediction
UFC Vegas 124 · Sunday, November 8, 2026. Our model gives Mitch Raposo a 61% chance to win.
Breakdown
Marcos Degli is a UFC debutant, so the model has no UFC data on him and there is no style profile to describe. Mitch Raposo has four UFC fights, which is still a small sample, so his numbers are only a rough sketch. He lands 2.11 significant strikes a minute and absorbs 2.97, with 60% striking defence. He attempts 1.66 takedowns per 15 minutes but connects on only 33%, and his 69% takedown defence is decent. His finish rate is 8% and he has never been knocked out or submitted. He is compact at 65 inches with a 64-inch reach, and he comes in on a two-fight win streak.
The model leans Raposo at 61% mostly because he is the only fighter it can measure. His Elo of 1509 sits slightly above average, he has that +2 streak, and he has not been finished in the UFC. The pick is low confidence, because Degli's side of the ledger is blank. The market sees it very differently, with Degli at 68%, a 29-point gap from our number. The most likely reason is that the model only knows UFC fights, so Degli's regional record, finishing history, camp or recent news are all invisible to it, while bettors can price those in.
Key question: does Degli's unseen pre-UFC form translate against a durable, if modest, veteran like Raposo?
Written by AI from the numbers below; it has no access to news or injuries.
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Tale of the tape (UFC fights only)
| Marcos Degli | Mitch Raposo | |
|---|---|---|
| UFC record | — | 2-2 |
| Rating (Elo) | — | 1509 |
| Sig. strikes landed / min | — | 2.11 |
| Sig. strikes absorbed / min | — | 2.97 |
| Striking accuracy | — | 43% |
| Striking defence | — | 60% |
| Takedowns / 15 min | — | 1.66 |
| Takedown defence | — | 69% |
| Submission attempts / 15 min | — | 0.10 |
| Knockdowns / 15 min | — | 0.05 |
| Finish rate | — | 8% |
| Streak | — | W2 |
| Days since last fight | — | 141 |
| Age | 26 | 28 |
| Height | — | 5'5" |
| Reach | — | 64" |
Rates for fighters with few UFC fights are blended toward league averages. The pick is logged with a timestamp before the event and graded on the track record, win or lose.